Strategy

သမိုင္းေၾကာင္းတစ္ေလွ်ာက္ နာမည္ေက်ာ္ၾကား အထင္အရွားရွိခဲ့တဲ့ စစ္မဟာဗ်ဴဟာပညာရွင္မ်ားက မဟာဗ်ဴဟာ (strategy) ဆိုတဲ့ ေ၀ါဟာရကို အမ်ိဳးမ်ိဳး အဖံုဖံု အဓိပၸါယ္ေဖာ္ေဆာင္ခဲ့ၾကတယ္။ တရုတ္စစ္မဟာဗ်ဴဟာ ပညာရွင္ ဆြန္ဇုက မဟာဗ်ဴဟာကို တိုက္ပြဲမဆင္ႏြဲလိုက္ရဘဲ ရန္သူကိုအညံ့ခံေစကာ မိမိေအာင္ပြဲခံ ႏိုင္ေလာက္သည့္ စိတ္ပိုင္းႏွင့္ရုပ္ပိုင္းဆိုင္ရာ အားသာခ်က္မ်ားကို ဖန္တီးရယူထိန္းသိမ္းထားႏိုင္မႈ ဆိုသည့္သေဘာ တင္ျပခဲ့သည္။ စစ္ဘုရင္ နပိုလီယံရဲ႕ ဦးစီးအရာရွိလုပ္ခဲ့ဘူးသူ ဂ်ိဳမီနီ (Antoine-Henri de Jomini) ကေတာ့ မဟာဗ်ဴဟာ ဆိုသည္မွာ ေျမပံုေပၚတြင္ စစ္ဆင္ႏြဲျခင္း (making war on the map) ဟုဆိုေလသည္။ တနည္းအားျဖင့္ ဆိုရေသာ္ စစ္ေျမျပင္တြင္ မိမိအသာစီးရရွိေနေစရန္ ေတြးဆစစ္ကစားျခင္းပင္ျဖစ္သည္။ ကမၻာေက်ာ္စစ္ပညာရွင္ျဖစ္သည့္ ကေလာ့ဇ၀ရွ္ (Carl von Clausewitz) ကေတာ့ နည္းဗ်ဴဟာ (tactic) နဲ႔ မဟာဗ်ဳဟာ (strategy)

Deciding to Intervene in the Syrian Crisis: An Analysis of International Influences and Rational Choice in the United States Foreign Policy

Thi Thu Linh Bui ,2017, Foreign Policy Analysis

Introduction

With the view that the United States (US) foreign policy is of exceptionalism, US is one of the powerful countries in the international system tending to intervene in the civil conflicts around the world. [1] By a quantitative analysis covering US interventions across 58 years from 1945 to 2002, Mullenbach and Matthews argued that the impacts of international factors are more important than that of internal factors on the US intervention choices, and that the impacts of both kinds of factor may vary depending on the kind of intervention and the time period. [2] The Syrian Crisis, which has started from March 2011 and has become a significantly troubled magnet attracting numerous interventional coalitions going along with their political and military intentions, is not out of US interventionism. This Civil War has been fallen into two presidential terms of Obama (2009-present) who prefers a diplomatic solution than a military solution in foreign policy, [3] however, in fact, US has occurred in the Crisis in both participatory and military interventions. Given the complexity and uncertainty of international system in the modern world as well as some Obama’s domestics successes such as healthcare system, economic recovery, and the creation of more perfect union, [4] the international factors, again, have played a crucial role in the Syrian intervention game. Also, Obama government using many types of intervention means that there was a poliheuristic decision making on the policy formulation. This paper, therefore, aims to address the international factors motivating the US government’s decision to involve in the Syrian Crisis namely the ideological and geopolitical influences, and to analyze the poliheuristic decision making of Obama to choose type of intervention in the Crisis.